Are We 3 Weeks From “Diesel Armageddon?”

I’ll start by saying that I’m not an expert on petroleum, but headlines of the last few days made me want to figure out–very quickly–whether we’re really only 25 days away from running out of diesel fuel.  If you’re an expert, please chime in.

Here’s what I was able to figure out.

The headlines saying that we only have 25 days of diesel fuel left come from the US Energy Information Administration:

It’s not the lowest it’s ever been, but it’s definitely lower than what is desirable and there are a few things making it more concerning…

1. This is a global problem…not just a US problem.
2. We’ve been exporting diesel to Europe to help them since Russia invaded Ukraine…we’re exporting 11.4 MILLION barrels of oil+fuel PER DAY, mostly from the East Coast while the East Coast faces shortages.
3. Biden lost the negotiating war with OPEC+ and they’re restricting production.
4. The US has systematically prevented refineries from coming online, hamstrung production, and complicated refining with gerrymandered and inconsistent fuel blend requirements.  Refineries have expanded, but it’s been 40+ years since the last new one came online.
5. While policies have caused the US to reduce production and Saudi Arabia / OPEC+ to impose punitive production levels, we’ve been draining our strategic reserves.
6. Refineries closed during the pandemic…but it was supposedly not due to the pandemic, but rather pending policy/legislation forcing a shift to electric vehicles.
7. There is very little incentive right now to build diesel inventories at current levels.
8. Several refineries are evidently getting ready to start their “maintenance season” where they go offline to do planned maintenance.
9. In the Southeast, Mansfield is already warning people that their delivery trucks are having to go to multiple locations to find diesel to fill up with, that actual prices are 30c-80c higher than posted averages, and requesting 72 hours for deliveries so they can actually find diesel as economically as possible.

This is a mess.

There’s a gasp of air coming in the form of 2…possibly 3 or more…tankers of diesel from the Middle East that got diverted from delivering to Europe to New York harbor.

Completely coincidentally, it could arrive before the election.  But this is not a long-term solution.  It is simply a stop-gap measure.

I don’t know why we’re exporting 11.4 million barrels per day and simultaneously “stealing” these tanker shipments that were headed to Europe.

The number of days of supply that we have is based on a few things…

Amount in storage

Average of the last 4 weeks of consumption

As long as we’re able to produce the same or more than what we consume, the number of days of supply stays the same or goes up.  But we’ve been draining our reserves to keep supplies/prices where they’re at.

And disincentivizing refiners from maintaining or expanding capacity.

What’s all of this mean?

It is super hard to say, but I think it would be intelligent to plan for some supply chain disruptions this winter.  It doesn’t even need to be anything crazy…just prudent stuff that you’ve been meaning to do.

If you use this concern/risk/potential problem to do what you’ve known you should do all along, then it’s good for you regardless of what happens this winter.

If any of your food gets delivered to stores by diesel trucks, it might be smart to stock up.  (Pretty much ALL food gets delivered by diesel trucks.)

I’m super-big on using current crises in the news as an excuse to do things I’ve been meaning to do.  I used to feel guilty about it.  Now I see it as a fire that I should throw fuel on.

Training for real world gunfights like >THIS< is one of those things.

IF we run out of diesel or if prices keep going up, it’s incredibly likely that we’re going to see a dramatic uptick in crime in the coming months.

Do you know how many gun owners do formal training in a given year?  Roughly 1-2%.

If we look at where guns are used to stop criminals, did you know that 75% of the time, it’s in the home or just outside the home?

Do you know what those 2 stats mean together?

It means that we should not only train like >THIS<, but we should do a huge chunk of our training in the environment where we’re most likely to use it…at home.  Not at the range.  Not on public lands.  But in your home.  If you don’t train regularly in your home, it’s like giving up home field advantage if you ever find yourself in a home invasion situation.

Tonight, I’m going to talk about he best, safest, and most effective way to train for fighting with a gun…regardless of whether it’s in your home, around your home, or in public.

Earlier this week, I was in a meeting and one of the guys stopped the conversation to say that he’d learned more in the last couple of weeks from this training than from any other firearms training he’d ever done.  While that’s humbling, it’s not unusual.

It can increase your ability to stop threats with a pistol DRAMATICALLY in the next 3 weeks…which could be just in time.

Why’s it SO unique and so powerful?  You’ll see why tonight >HERE<

Are you seeing shortages yet?

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